Tuesday, January 7, 2025
P&D Geopolitics Edition: Russia
By Rich Kozlovich
I get irritated over so
many articles that
claim Russia's economy is growing alluding to the idea all is fine, and I
have no idea where that comes from, over 30 percent of their budget is
defense spending, and Russian industry still can't supply their military
or meet the needs of their civilian population.
When I read, analyze, and write about anything I start with this
foundational truth: Everything is the basics. Most things aren't as
complicated as they're presented. They all have root foundations to
them and that's what has to be identified. If what I'm reading violates
"the basics" I know it's wrong, and all I have to do is gather
sufficient information to explain why it's wrong.
Russia will win in Ukraine, sort of, and it will be a massive loss
to Russia. The world's second army hasn't been able to beat the world's
22nd army in over two years. They can't manufacture their own military
hardware, they can't field their army with their own citizens, and the
only reason they will win is because Ukraine is running out of people,
along with the fact Zelenskyy and his cabal are totally corrupt and have
no credibility, even with their own people. I will say I am impressed
with those who remain and are still fighting even though they must know
it's a lost cause.
After this is over, Russia will find they have no credibility, they
can't afford to rebuild all the infrastructure they've destroyed, the
population they hoped to absorb into the Russian population to help
against their demographic time bomb is now either dead or fled the
nation, and more will flee, giving Europe the manpower they claimed they
needed justifying bringing in all these Muslim migrants ....the vast majority of whom
are on welfare.... and they will suffer economically, no matter
what deals are struck.
Is it possible there will be a deal to save Ukraine in some
fashion? If anyone can broker such a deal I think it's Trump, and if
Ukraine does continue to exist, that will further erode Russian, and
especially Putin's credibility. One thing is clear though, Putin's
ruling class is committed to the idiotic idea that NATO wants to attack
Russia, at least that's what they're promoting to the Russian
population, whether they believe it or not, in order to justifying
continuing their military expenditures, and that's as far as the eye
can see.
One final thought. Failed Russian leaders do not fare well, so, do
you know why the Soviets didn't kill Khrushchev after they dethroned
him? I believe it was because during his reign there were attempts to
overthrow him and when they failed, he didn't kill his adversaries.
And if I remember correctly, some remained in the government. After the
Stalin mass murdering depredations I think that shocked them, and Khrushchev lived out the rest of his life comfortably.
However, Putin has been a murderous thug, and anything less than a
total occupation of Ukraine is a failure. It's
my view there will be an attempt to overthrow him, as I'm sure there's a
Stauffenberg cabal in their government, and their military, and if he's
overthrown, I think he will fall prey to a major accident, or have a
major accident that avoids an overthrow. Afterward there will be a
massive restructuring of their government, and their military, but will
there be a massive restructuring of their thinking?
Who knows, they're Russian, and Russia is a "hordesland" nation, hence their historical goal of conquering smaller nations at their borders to be barriers to attack. While in times past that was understandable, but today, that's paranoia, unfortunately and that paranoia is almost inbred in Russians.
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