P&D Geopolitics Edition, Russia, Ukraine, and Donald Trump, Part III

Today the KGB, in all it's manifestations over the last 100 years, has now outlived communism and Russia is no longer a state with a security service, instead the security service has a state. 

By Rich Kozlovich, Tags

In December a Russian general was assassinated, and six days ago another Russian general was assassinated, very near Moscow, and it's not being done by the Russians, not their style when dealing with internal conflicts.  That's why they have gulags and work camps.  These were vehicle detonations and most likely done remotely.  

This might be viewed a small thing in the overall picture, but I see this in a different light.  I think it's a very large small thing, and is a foundational insight into the Russian military, their internal security is deteriorating, and I've stated in the past it seems likely to me there's a Claus von Stauffenberg cabal in their military.  As I read this I wondered if this isn't a subtle evidence of that being so, as it seems this required inside information.   Just a thought... as I said... subtle evidence. 

There are two camps in the Russian hierarchy, the war mongers who insist on fighting until total victory is attained, because like all criminals, they just can give up on the con.  They insistent on clinging to the fallacious argument NATO and Europe, with support from America, are now, and have been on the verge of attacking Russia.  The ridiculous "depth of defense" argument that's been used to justify their unwarranted attack on Ukraine by Russia.  I'll tell you what, we'll come back to that.

Then there's the group who sees reality and recognizes they need peace as a matter of practicality.  This was has cost them hundreds of thousands of young men who will no longer be around to contribute to their population, which has a serious demographic problem.  Ten years ago it was estimated by 2040 ethnic Russians would be a minority in their own nation.  That drop in the Russian ethnic demographic has now been speeded up - a lot.  Putin's insane war has put Russia's demographics in free fall.

Russia has seven defensive gaps they feel they must defend, and ten years ago they only had enough manpower to fully man three of them.  Now their manpower level is so bad there are now mercenaries from 48 nations with boots on the ground including N. Korea and China, seriously exposing the Russian military isn't a bear.   They're so desperate they've duped poor young Indian nationals desperate for foreign employment into fighting in Ukraine. In fact this war has turned into a meat grinder. A riot broke out over this in Krasnodar and their desertion problem is real.

The economics of this war is killing them and they want a restoration of economic stability and a return of international investments, but they don't want to make any concession until they conquer more territory. 

According to Ekaterina Zolotova, an expert analyst for Geopolitical, that's a reflection of the Russian mentality overall.   The majority want peace, a minority wants war, but a huge majority of all Russians insist there should be no concessions or minimal concessions.  That's Putin's conundrum. 

The drop in the price of oil and U.S. sanctions has caused Putin serious budget issues.  Central Asian nations that were former USSR republics are now doing more business with China, who is even wanting to fund building a small nuke power plant in one of these nations, and that's a pattern that won't end when this war is over.  

China's cut a "comprehensive strategic partnership" deal with Azerbaijan involving travel, trade, science, energy and...get this... tourism.   But here's the kicker.  They're agreeing to affirm mutual support for sovereignty and territorial integrity.   How far will that range?  As for right now Azerbaijan agrees that Taiwan is part of China and China agrees to support Azerbaijan in their conflict with Nagoya-Karabakh.   Didn't even know there was such a thing did you, but this is a major small conflict on Russia's border that's been going on for years, and one that Russia can't resolve due to this Ukraine war.  Azerbaijan is on the west cost of the Caspian Sea, right in Russia's back yard, and China is stepping in where Russia has failed.   Russians can't even manufacture their military needs, so China does, and has been doing so for some time.

Even Pakistan is involving themselves in the Russian sphere of influence, and truth be told, Putin needs to worry far more about China than NATO or the U.S.

Back to the "Depth of Defense" big lie.  In February Putin predicted Trump was going to make Europe's leaders ‘Bend at His Feet’ saying:

“They just don’t like Trump. They forgot him actively, really interfered in political life, in the election process of the United States. And then they were confused when Trump suddenly won,” Putin said. “But I assure you, Trump with his character, persistence, he will restore order pretty quickly. And all of them, you’ll see, it will happen quickly, soon, all of them will stand at the master’s feet and gently wag their tails.”

Why is that important?  It's a tacit acknowledgement that Putin understood who and what these European NATO "leaders" were and had to know they had no plans, desires, or ability to attack Russia.  

There have been prominent writers who claim Putin doesn't bluff, I think that's a load of horsepucky.  I've paid a lot of attention to him over the years, and read a lot of Russian history, and he's still practicing what Russian communists have been practicing since they took over, it's called maskirovka, a masquerade.  

The Russians always bluff unless they have an overwhelming advantage where there's no need bluff in order to get their way, then they just use the hammer.  Just like when the USSR crushed the Hungarian Revolution in 1956, or the Czech revolt known as the Prague Spring in 1968, where nothing could have stopped Soviet troops from overwhelming those nations.   That's not the case now, and what advantage he had has dissipated massively, at many levels.

Russia was considered the number two military nation in the world, which has been fighting a war against the 22nd military nation in the world for three years, but he's not going to launch nuclear weapons against Ukraine.  He can't take the risk of retaliation, and NATO is now aware of how dangerous Putin is, and is talking retaliation, which makes you wonder from where they're getting their natural gas now, and do they really want Warsaw or Berlin to become a nuclear waste land?  

But Putin really doesn't want Moscow to become one either, and I don't believe he will take that chance.  I also believe he's facing some internal political issues that scares him. Is there a Claus von Stauffenberg cabal within his military?  Absolutely!  Historically, being Caesar is the scariest most dangerous job in the world, or in this case Czar, without the religious trappings.  

There's always a Stauffenberg cabal, look at what happened to the American military establishment.  Would they take action if he attempted to use nukes?  I think so.  He's not the chess player we thought he was, but that's when he was dealing with nitwits like Obama, but I also don't think he's that stupid either. He's not really all that smart, he's just clever.  Even if there's no retaliation the international consequences will be massive.  He's already destroyed Ukraine far beyond his economic ability to rebuild it, and nukes would merely make it worse, so where's the victory? 

He's failed to defeat Ukraine in three years, and it's clear Russia's military, and especially it's military leadership are not all that after all.  Bad leadership, bad training, bad strategy, poor logistics, terrible planning, lousy intelligence, and stupid arrogant conclusions, all of which has been the problem with Russia for 125 years, going back to the the 1904 Russo/Japanese war, which Russia lost, and then WWI, which they lost.  They only defeated Germany in WWII because Germany was overstretched.... way over stretched....  and America provided much needed hardware, especially the Dodge truck.  

It's been said the Dodge truck saved the Soviet Union, as that allowed Stalin to quickly transport men and material around the country, which he was incapable of doing before that.  Horse cart supply lines don't cut it. If Germany had finished off England first, and hadn't declared war on America, Russia would have lost, badly, even with the 30 divisions he had stashed in Eastern Russia to repel a feared Japanese invasion.

This war has exposed just how fragile Russia is economically, industrially, and domestically.  As a result,  Putin's international credibly is in the toilet, and he needs for this war to go away.  He also needs to come out looking good, or at least not as the loser, since in Russia failed leaders aren't well tolerated, and I've no doubt, given the murderous thug he's been, he legitimately fears for his continued existence.  

He also knows France and others are talking about putting boots on the ground, and Trump didn't want to keep funding Ukraine any longer.  He clearly needs Trump to work some diplomatic magic as he did with the Abrahamic Accords, and that will have to be a multinational agreement that binds Russia to Ukrainian protection, which will require an entire restructuring of Ukraine's government.  Good luck with that, as each time they seem to reach an agreement one or both parties reneges, and Trump made it clear he's had it and is more than willing to walk away. 

But now Trump has allegedly cut a deal with Zalenskyy over mining in Ukraine, as a result, a fund would be created out of that to rebuild Ukraine and Trump is partially ending his ban on military hardware.  A lot of military hardware.   Fifty billion dollars worth of military hardware, so we'll see what happens, but make no mistake about this.  There are no good guys in this war, only one worse guy, and that's Putin.

P&D Geopolitical Edition

By Rich Kozlovich

As is well known Hamas launched a surprise attack against an unarmed defenseless civilian population performing vile acts on men, women, and children, even baking a baby alive in an oven and filming it to the great pleasure of Gazans.  They initially attacked wearing some form of uniform, but as soon as they became the targets they dumped those uniforms as they had no desire to have a standup fight with armed and trained military personnel.  Killing defenseless men, women and children is so much easier.   

Now it's a war of attrition, and some are questioning who will survive, Hamas or Israel?  Get real, Hamas is doomed in Gaza, and even the Gazans are marching against them.  Not in favor of Israel mind you, just in favor of their own self interests, they would still dance in the streets if more coffins with dead Israeli hostages were paraded through the streets.   There are no innocents in Gaza, and in spite of Hamas claims 70% of casualties have been women and children, that's another lie, it turns out "72% of casualties are male, a demographic that aligns with Hamas combatants."

 In Turkey President Erdogan arrested his political opponent in the upcoming election and Erdogan's regime has taking on all the ear marks of the Iranian model of government, and an awful lot of people are really unhappy about that, triggering massive demonstrations involving hundreds of thousands of people, as the author goes on to say:

The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, the leading political rival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on corruption charges — after being accused of both corruption and terrorism — marks yet another sign that Turkey is becoming the next Iran: A state where elections are tightly controlled, rigged in advance and reduced to a democratic façade without free and fair campaign conditions.

Turkey’s Islamist ruler has not yet established an official Turkish equivalent of Iran’s Guardian Council — a 12-member body that vets all candidates in elections and disqualifies those who pose a perceived threat to the mullah regime. However, the arrest of İmamoğlu, following the earlier imprisonment of popular Kurdish political leader Selahattin Demirtaş, who has been in jail since 2016, confirms that a de facto Guardian Council is taking shape in Turkey.

Turkey is becoming a state where elections are tightly controlled, rigged in advance, and reduced to a democratic facade without free and fair campaign conditions.

Notice the pattern playing out here worldwide.  Erdogan weaponized the justice system, wants to rewrite their constitution eliminating their legislative structure to install him as the absolute ruler, a "theocratic dictator".

While there may be some validity to charges of corruption against İmamoglu, corruption is so wide spread in Turkey's political sphere that would be expected, but it's only allowed for those who support Erdogan.

Will these demonstrations alter Turkey's political structure?  We'll see, as every tool of oppression is being used against anyone who stands against Erdogan.  But I think it needs to be understood none of this is really about Democracy as we know it.  It's about changing who's in charge for their own benefit.  Corruption in government isn't an anomaly throughout the Middle East and Africa, it's the rule, and it's a rule the group in power wants to exploit to the limits, and even beyond.

Anything said by Erdogan that may sound reasonable and conciliatory, is simply not to be taken seriously.  Remember, Iran is the model for what Erdogan is doing, and just like Khomeini who talked about bringing democracy to Iran and had no desire to become Iran's ruler, it was a deliberate lie.  A lie that was reported by a gullible media, after all they really liked the idea the pro-American government of the Shah of Iran was deposed.

In Turkey Erdogan has manipulated the tax system to punish anyone who disagrees or challenges him and fines any newspaper massively for reporting the facts about his polices, aims, and goals.   The media that remains spews out adoring accolades of Erdogan's greatness, and the tens of millions of children who've gone through their education system have been properly indoctrinated to be pro Erdogan supporters, all of which makes these massive demonstrations even more amazing.

Support for terrorist groups is part of Erdogan's foreign policy, and it's time the west recognized that, but Turkey is a member of NATO and that can't be ignored.  Their support of violent terrorist jihadi groups has to be addressed by declaring Turkey a supporter of terrorists, and such a designation should be the touchstone for all negotiations and dealings with Turkey. 

P&D Geopolitics Edition: Russo/Ukranian War, and Donald Trump

By Rich Kozlovich   

I just watched a podcast that got a lot right, and a lot wrong. It was suggested Zelenskyy's snit at the White House was staged by Trump, and that was from someone I have a great deal of respect for, but it's still clearly irrational. It was staged by Zelenskyy. When they have these meetings with the reporters it’s like a stage play with everything largely scripted out. It was Zelenskyy who went off script, and did so at the behest of the Democrats and RINO's who he met with previously, somehow convincing him he could embarrass Trump in front of the nation and get things he wanted that were not agreed to.

Is this Russo/Ukraine War the real end to the cold war? For the most part, yes, since now everyone knows the Russian military bear is a Teddy Bear, and Europe no longer needs to fear being attacked. The number two military nation in the world couldn't beat the number 22 military nation in the world in three years, and now needs recruits from North Korea to man their army.

While this is the true end to the Cold War, Russia will still be playing the bad boy on the block as long as they still have a quasi-Soviet form of governance. A form of governance that’s almost genetic in Russians, just as is their irrational fear of being attacked, while historically based, it’s now irrational, except for China. There’s more to be seen there in the future, at least until both their economies collapse along with the EU.

Call their leader a President, Premiere, dictator, or Czar, it’s a tyrannous form of governance, and is foundational to their centuries long social paradigm.

There was a comparison made between Putin and Ukraine and Lyndon Johnson and Vietnam. But there was a difference. America entered that mess because they tried to please the most unpleasable people in Europe. The French! Their anti-Soviet fears were valid, Stalin really did want to conquer the rest of Europe, but their actions regarding Vietnam were foolish, and make no mistake, the French are the most unreliable ally the world has ever known, and it was they who cause the Vietnam War, and no matter the public demonstrations, there is absolutely no European nation that trusts the French, and there are centuries of history that justify that view.

The French conned us with rhetoric about giving a form of independence to the Vietnamese, which some very smart people who were rabid anti-communists bought into embracing preconceptual politics. France was a country that should have been labeled as a collaborator nation after WWII, which it was, and never given a seat at the UN. But America’s leaders allowed themselves to be bullied by De Gaulle, who threatened to join with the communists if they didn’t give him what he wanted. Support their recolonization of Indochina. And this was the beginning of the cold war, which enabled preconceived notions refusing to accept what was known in favor of their preconceptions. They ignored the things known, and made up the things unknown.

The real culprit was FDR, who finally acknowledged just before he died Stalin had broken every one one of the promises he made at Yalta, and there was more than enough intelligence to know that’s exactly what was going to happen, and yet Truman failed to deal with it at Potsdam. FDR created the Cold War, Truman ran with it, and the rest of the world was stuck with it. That’s the problem when you have too many “really smart people” who are in charge with massive egos, and little intelligence, just like Kissinger and Nixon. They have no concept about “the basics” and no use for them, and ideology makes smart people stupid.

As for their inability to recognize there could be no military victory in Vietnam simply because they couldn't get the people on their side isn't entirely true. There were those, including respected military men, who pointed that very thing out, and yet, they recommended more military intrusion. The reason? Preconceptualism.

Preconceived politics, preconceived journalism, preconceived science, all refusing to recognize anything that may refute their preconceived notions, leading to failure.  Whether it involves global warming, or geopolitics.   But, then again, everything is geopolitical at some point, and once again, this idea that Putin was claiming  Russia needed a buffer between Russia and the west because they were scared, is horsepucky.  Get real, this argument they were afraid they were going to be attacked is folly.  It was all about revanche, plain and simple, and it would appear that’s the geopolitical hill so many are willing to die on, which I find flabbergasting. 

He knew there was no physical threat to Russia by anyone. He knew NATO couldn’t beat its way out of a wet paper bag. He knew the Europeans would do nothing, and we know that was what he believed when he acknowledged Europe’s leaders would end up coming to Trump wagging their tails. He had their number, so all this “depth of defense” clabber is nonsense.

America had no intention of invading Russia, and any claim Putin couldn’t know that and had to plan for the worst, is also horsepucky. The Russians have spies in every institution in America, and they’re excellent at infiltration. Their intelligence services use all the tools possible, and that includes electronic tools.

I’ve said this in the past and I’m going to restate it. I worked in intelligence when I was in the service, and every action being planned leaves trails. Trails that once picked up on are tracked, and there were absolutely no trails indicating America was going to attack Russia, and Putin knew it. How do I know that? Simply, no one in Russia is claiming any evidence of an attack in planning, which would have justified Putin's aggression, something he's desperately sought.

They knew America didn’t plan to invade, didn’t want to invade, and wasn’t going to invade, and merely wanted Russia to stop acting like the international bully they are. As for the argument Trump wants Putin to continue in power, since as a defeated Russian leader, he's weak and can be negotiated with, well, that may not matter.  Putin failed, Russia is suffering economically, and who knows how many hundreds of thousands of young mens lives have been wasted in this war.   He’s already showing signs he’s scared, and his goal now is to survive, so he desperately needs this war to end.  

There's already resistance in his government and even protests in Siberia.  Russian leaders who fail are discarded, and he’ll be replaced with someone who was against the war in the first place and who will see the big time advantage of having America on his side. Besides, the Chinese are going to be a problem for Russia down the road, and I don’t care what kind of big public agreements and statements they’re making now.

On February 20th Victoria White Berger published this piece, Oh, horrors! Trump pursues peace and tells the truth about Zelenskyy saying:

Zelenskyy is furious that America, whose taxpayers have financed “his” war, did not yet include him in the first diplomatic efforts with Russia. But this is not all about Zelenskyy, fortunately. It most absolutely stands to reason that the peace talks, from the perspective of any historically successful diplomacy, must begin with the most powerful participant: Russia. This is Diplomacy 101. 

Well, Zelenskyy is out, and so too are the European nations.  They have nothing to offer, and their eternal bickering is counterproductive.  But now they're scrambling to appear consequential promising to come up with their own plan, spending more money on Ukraine, sending more equipment and even saying they're going to put boots on the ground. It's all CO2. If they believed saving Ukraine was so important, they should have done that three years ago when it would have meant something.

This is Putin’s war, and his excuses for starting it are pathetic, as I've already shown. And none of this could have happened if it wasn’t for Joe Biden stealing the election via massive voter fraud because he gave Putin carte blanche for supplying energy to Europe when he shut down all the drilling, and even started buy oil from Venezuela. That funded Putin’s war.

However, that wouldn’t have been a problem if Europe’s leaders hadn’t gone insane, aka, green, buying into the global warming lies. They’re either stupid or crazy.

If the Ukrainian government hadn’t been one of, if not the most corrupt governments in Europe, they could have easily provided for adequate defenses to thwart any Russian invasion. And if there are all these wealth building natural resources there, as is being reported, why didn’t they develop them before and become a very wealthy nation, capable of buying or building a huge defense capability that would have thwarted any invasion?

Russia has been at it since 2014 they had to know it was coming, and Putin would have known those defensive capabilities were in place, and as a result, this would have never happened. But you can’t corruptly line your pockets and meet the needs of the nation at the same time, and it seems perfectly clear that’s what has been happening all these years.

From the beginning my view is this is Europe’s problem, let them fix it or not, if they don’t it’s on them. If they do, it’s still on them, we have no skin in this game. If you’re a moral person you must feel compassion for the people of Ukraine, the same people who suffered the death of millions at Stalin’s hands, but if you’re a rational person, you must realize this isn’t our fault, and Ukraine is lost, Russia is in trouble, Europe isn't a nation it's a continent filled with conflicted nations, all of whom behind closed doors admit this war is lost, and needs to end, and the only one who can do that is Donald Trump, and he will not allow Zelenskyy, his corrupt government, or the stupid leaders of Europe to interfere, or he'll just walk away and let them play this mess out for as long as they like. We're going to take our marbles and go home.

One more thing. As a result of Trump’s views that the Russo/Ukrainian War isn’t our problem nor is it our responsibility, that it’s Europe’s problem and they can fix it or not, and we don’t care what they do, what they say or think because they don’t count, it seems clear to me he’s been reading my articles in P&D. Waddayathink?

P&D Geopolitics Edition: Russia

By Rich Kozlovich

P&D Geopolitics Issue

By Rich Kozlovich 

Over the years I've written a lot about China because I've read a lot about China, and I think Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies published in 1997 had a lot to do with perking my interest there, and more so his views on why patterns keep repeating in so many different societies worldwide. 

China's history is large, complicated, and well studied by the Chinese.  I've often said those who've read much about China's history often know what they're going to do, and while not always, most of the time why.  It's just absolutely no one knows when or where they're going to do it.   

Nothing about China is ever as it appears, including their economy.  Their human rights record is abysmal, their conduct with their neighbors is appalling, and internationally illegal. 

While all the economists, pundits, and politicians were lauding China's economy the bug man was saying it's all smoke and mirrors, for almost 20 years now, and it's become obvious that's true to the experts as well. Imagine that.  Think about this.  If the bug man could see that almost 20 years ago, how could the highly educated and knowledgeable experts not see it?

On October 26, 2024 John Mauldin published his weekly Thoughts From the Front Line with this piece, Broken China noting the growth and the transition to the lack of growth and why, their massive debt, their banking system that's in effect a department of the government, their property development default issues, their centralized economic schemes, their demographic problems and the housing issues:

“China has a bigger problem lurking behind all those empty apartments: even more homes that developers already sold but have not finished building. By one conservative estimate, that figure is around 10 million apartments.“…......One recent estimate, from the research firm Rhodium Group, put the real estate sector’s entire domestic borrowings, including loans and bonds, at more than $10 trillion, of which only a tiny portion have been recognized.”

The real issue in China is the CCP's desire to remain in control at all costs:

........maintaining the party’s power is always top priority in a Communist system. To some degree, this requires keeping the population happy and comfortable. Hungry people, even relatively uncomfortable people, are generally less cooperative (note sarcasm). But if push comes to shove, regime preservation comes first. Xi’s predecessors demonstrated that with the “Cultural Revolution” and later Tiananmen Square.

All this is going to reduce willingness to invest in China, and this new N. Korea and Russia embrace is an illusion.  They're all going broke.  N. Korea is working overtime to provide military equipment Russia needs and is incapable of producing themselves, which I think is a long term tell on Russia's state of affairs, along with the fact were seeing what was considered to be the number two military power in the world unable to defeat the number 22 military power in the world for over two years and a half years.  

Communist Cuba's entire power grid has collapsed. After Russia stopped funding Cuba in the 80's and Venezuela wasted all their money supporting socialist nations, and went broke, Cuba had to rely on it's own resources, and they failed.  Their taxpayer base is pretty much non existent, and they're not only lacking energy, they're lacking all the basics, including food. 

Repairing their grid is going to be more than difficult since they didn't even create it in the first place, the Russians created it in the early 1970's, and they never properly maintained it after 1980 when the Russians turned off the tap and the Soviet Union collapsed, and the US embargo made it difficult to get material, but I think that's way over played.  It's estimated it will take $10 billion dollars to bring it up to snuff, and that's the equivalent of  "10 percent of the country’s gross domestic product".  And they don't have it.   It will be interesting to see if Russia, China, Iran, or N. Korea come to their rescue, especially since Cuba is such a strategically  important nation.   But is irritating the United States with such a smoke and mirrors game worth ten billion dollars to them?

How about converting to solar?  Well, they're incapable of creating such a system, and what private enterprise with that capability would be willing to invest in Cuba, as they're notorious for nationalizing businesses.

Russian, China, and all the rest of that cabal may throw some money at them to infuriate the American war hawks, but that's all smoke and mirrors, they can't afford Cuba now any more than they could afford Cuba decades ago, and it's much worse now.  The more they throw away supporting Cuba, the sooner they go broke.  The left screams about Batista, but under him Cuba was better off than many European nations at that time.  Was he a thug?  Sure, but compared to the horrors the Castro cabal imposed on Cubans he was a humanitarian.

Cuba is unfixable unless they overthrow the communists and embrace America, and that goes for Venezuela also, but it's not happening no matter how their nation is swirling down the sewer being turned into a criminal controlled state, just like Haiti, and Cuba will end up the same way. 

There's all this scary talk about BRICS, and again, I think it's all smoke and mirrors, as  Antonia Colibasanu notes: 

For leaders such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the annual BRICS summit is an excellent opportunity to present a vision of a world in which the United States does not lead. And yet, each summit confirms that the grouping has no function other than to promote lofty rhetoric and symbolic gestures.

They want to create an economic system to overcome the American dollar, and America's ability to impose restrictions on trade with countries who like Russia attacked Ukraine, and those who support them.   But these are all economic losers, and guess what?  They have no idea how to do it.  There was a lot of rhetoric but no new economic multilateral model offered that could possibly match what already exists, and the potential for mutual beneficial cooperation is a dream, kind of like a nightmare, and one thing I think all these countries have come away with is the understanding BRICS isn't about mutually beneficial multinational cooperation, it's all about what's beneficial for China and Russia, and mostly China, and the question is does Putin grasp that, or is it he's in so much trouble over his invasion of Ukraine, he has no choice but to embrace this folly.  One more thing.  If they actually did work something out, who's currency would they use?   

Did you know there was an Organization of Turkic states? Yeah, me neither, and before all this it didn't really matter, but for the first time the met this last weekend in Istanbul. Okay, so what?  Well, no one's saying it so I will.  Supposedly this is all about industry, science, technology, and innovation, and I'm sure it was, but I believe there's a behind the curtain factor here.  This is a push against Russia, or at least a warning.  Why? Look who the members are, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan with Hungary and Turkmenistan as observers.  Most former Soviet satellites who very often are going their own way whether Putin likes it or not, and Turkey is playing a dangerous cat and mouse game with the west and with Russia. 

Turkey is part of NATO, but not the European Union, and wants to play both sides in this Russo/Ukrainian War.

Turkey is asking to be fully "admitted in the Russian-Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, where it is a dialogue partner, and to BRICS, while successfully contending with the Iranian (actually another Turk) Ali Khamenei and the Saudi Muhammad bin Salman for the leadership of the Islamic ecumene and claiming the spiritual leadership of the Organisation of Turkish States. Turkey is whatever it needs to be. Turkish, Muslim and Asian, but also European and Western. Part of the developed world, but also part of the Global South. A strategic component of the American Empire, but also a potentially lethal threat to the superpower’s hegemony. In essence, Turkey is itself and its interests. And it is in the light of this banal reality that Ankara will calibrate its moves in the Ukrainian game".

In the end Turkey want's to crush the US, enfeeble Russia, and become the overriding power in the Middle East.  That's not going to happen, because Turkey is a mess and no one trusts anything Erdogan does or says. 

P&D Geopolitics Edition

The Israel/Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran War, the Russo/Ukraine War, and More

By Rich Kozlovich

For years I've been busy explaining to the world what they're doing wrong, and they just refuse listen to the bugman. Imagine that!   Let's start with:

 

The Israel/Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran War.

 

The reality of Islam is unending conflict, within and outside of Islam.  The current open war with Israel is an example.  Iranians are Shiite Muslims as are Hezbollah and Hamas are Sunni Muslims, and they hate each other.  Which is why some claim that explains why no one came to Hamas' support at the initial onslaught of this war, which seems clear they expected.  Who knows, but Muslims operate on a different set of values than the rest of the world, including their dealings with each other.  

 

When others stab their friends in the back, they know that's what they're doing, no matter what excuses and justifications they may offer.  When Muslims stab others in the back, they recognize no moral ambiguity, as in some way they'll claim what their doing is based on the Koran, and they're gaining merit with Allah. 

Israel is now more united behind Netanyahu, but given Israel's political and social structure that can change overnight, but it's clear Israel is fighting on seven fronts.  That's a war of survival, and Israel will have to destroy these groups, and at some point attack Iran, and make clear any nation that harbors and abets these monsters are at war with Israel, and may be attacked.  I find it interesting the media, the Democrats, all leftists, and Iran condemn Israel as "terrorists" for using exploding pagers to take out a lot of terrorists, but these are the same people who danced at the vile disgusting crimes Hamas committed against innocent Israeli civilians, as Daniel Greenfield notes: Rape is Resistance and Beepers are Genocide. 

 

All of a sudden they're decrying the "breakdown of international law", which never seemed to bother them when all these terrorists rained down missiles on Israeli civilians, which actually has gone on for decades. 

 

It doesn't seem to bother them that Iran has declared a war against Israel but they've declared war without officially declaring war, and the UN, that "vile wretched hive of scum and villainy", says nothing about it, making it clear they want Israel destroyed and are now demanding Jews must leave Jerusalem.   Since there's no appeasing them, other than committing suicide, Israel will now openly ignore them, and rightly so, attacking all their adversaries on all fronts, with no holds barred.

 

"U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the Security Council Wednesday. "An all-out war must be avoided at all costs. It would surely be an all-out catastrophe."    Okay, and that catastrophe will be for whom?   It's clear these cease fire nitwits know the catastrophe will be for the terrorist movements and Iran.  And that's bad why?

 

Israel has picked up the gauntlet, but they're not going to duel on their adversaries terms, but on their terms, and that will be with the understanding there can be no peace with Islam....ever.  Any Abraham Accord style agreements that may come into being if Trump is elected are mere respites, and Israel should embrace them, all the while undermining any adversaries, and preparing for the next assault.

 

Israel must become less dependent on the US since one of the political parties is an antisemitic ogre. This is a forever war, and it's high time that was emphasized, and state clearly Israel is not the real target. Western civilization is the target, Israel is the canary in the coal mine.  Muslims have been murdering innocent people for almost 1500 years, and it's time we stopped excusing them.

Western Europe is lost.  In Lyon the Muslim population is 30% and now the French are so afraid to offend them they're bending to Sharia law and rules.  Israel is where America has skin in the game, not Europe.  It's my hope if Trump is elected he will stop funding the UN, and that's long over due.  

 

At this point there are only three European nations immune to a Muslim conversion.  Poland, Hungary, and Russia.  Three traditional historical enemies who may have to converge in order to survive the conversion of the rest of Europe.Think about that.  Poland may save Europe again.

 

But Europe is a spent force, and can only survive as Europeans if they abandon the UN, seriously restructure the EU, declare the WEF a criminal organization, and that Islam isn't a religion but a criminal political movement masquerading as a religion, and have mass deportations, and if necessary, revoking citizenship of Muslims.  In short, they will have to do what Spain did after the Reconquista.  That's history, and that history is incontestable.

 

History is everything as the patterns of life play out over and over again, and I've often wondered if any of these highly educated nitwits in leadership roles ever read a history book. As for those who have, like Henry Kissinger, the Tallyrand of the 20th century, did they care?  "Ideology makes smart people stupid."

 

Let's Review the Russo/Ukrainian War. 

 

I read a lot of clabber about the Russo/Ukraine War, and often times I see insane claims Putin didn't have a choice, it was the fault of America, Ukraine, Europe, and it never seems to end the number of people they point their fingers at in order to justify Putin's aggression. 

Let's try and get this right, no matter how many side bars are presented, this falls on Putin!  He chose to attack.  Having said that, while having compassion for the Ukrainian people, I don't care what happens to Ukraine as a nation.

This is a failure of Biden and his energy policies that funded this invasion, the stupidity of European leaders and their energy policies, and the stunning corruption of Ukrainian leadership who failed to proper fund arming themselves instead of funding their own bank accounts.  But it was Putin who chose to make this a shooting war. 

Ukraine's government was and is corrupt, and perhaps if they were allowed to have the election Zelenskyy prevented things might be different. Who knows, but either way, none of this is our fault, nor is it our responsibility.

We're throwing away billions on Ukraine, none of which the Biden administration tracked, nor would they allow it to be tracked, in order to support Europe.  All of which is wasted money as Europe is a doomed spent force, and we no longer have skin in that game, and yet they're quibbling over millions for Israel where we really do have skin in that game. There's where the real enemy of western civilization is in play.

Will Putin use nukes? I put this in a 60/40 "no" category as he has a lot of dissent behind the scenes, and I'm still convinced there's a von Stauffenberg contingent in his military. If he attempts to use nukes, he could be out, and survival is his primary goal now, but he still can't let loose of this insane war HE started. When Caesar fails or appears weak, he's not Caesar much longer.

However, if he does use nukes will there be a European nuclear response? I'm 100 % convinced the answer is no. Does anyone really believe Europe is willing to sacrifice Warsaw, Berlin, Paris, and London in a nuclear exchange over Ukraine?

How will this end? I've been convinced Ukraine can't win simply because they don't have enough boots on the ground. Many have fled, and many resent Zelenskyy and his coterie. But Putin's coterie is so blatantly incompetent this has gone on shockingly long, and what we're seeing is the break out for the wars of the future.  Drones and lasers. 

Putin and Zelenskyy should both hope Trump is elected, as I think he will find a way to resolve this, with no one being happy, which should be the goal. 

Long term consequences? 

Russia is toast as a world shaker.   They can't even manufacture the military hardware they need as they're buying military hardware from Iran and N. Korea.  The EU will collapse, Russia and China will go broke, and the world will be facing what historians call a historical end cycle, which always involved massive economic downturns and violence before a new cycle begins.

Based on history, I'm not optimistic.

Definition Leads to Clarity

Let's take a minute to review terms that are thrown around that actually end up confusing the world about who and what these politicos are, and why they make the decisions that make. 

Left, right, conservatives, liberals, and socialists, all are being used a lot to define characters around the world, and that's especially true of Europe after the recent elections, which has "the left" fearing "the right" is taking over.  Well, that's not exactly the way things are. 

When talking about classical liberals it should be realized they no longer exist, and in fact, Republicans come closest.

Leftists in the late 19th and early 20th century didn't dare call themselves socialists in America because socialism is foundationally atheistic, and that didn't play well in America. So, they called themselves progressives, then liberals, then back to progressives. But now they so deeply entrenched in America's institutions, they're boldly calling themselves socialists, and that justifies their antisemitism, violence, lies, corruption, and what can hardly be called anything less than treason. 

 

Having said all that, it's important to understand conservatism is cultural and the differences in different cultures. Currently, our concern is understanding what it means in America, so we can understand what it means in Europe. Their newly embraced "rightist" views isn't conservatism as we know it, but, is in my opinion a mixed bag of mild socialism and nationalism. They remind me of libertarians. No one knows what they really believe, including libertarians.

Truth be told, the only political party in America that knows what it believes are the Democrats. They know they hate America, Americans, capitalism, and the Constitution.  Which explains why they support terrorists, criminals, illegal migration, high taxes, burdensome regulations, and the murder of the innocent unborn. 

That's the world as I see it, and it ain't pretty.  

Posted by Rich Kozlovich at 5:25 AM No comments: