By Rich Kozlovich, Tags: My Russo/Ukrainian War Series, My Russia Commentaries
In December a Russian general was assassinated, and six days ago another Russian general was assassinated, very near Moscow, and it's not being done by the Russians, not their style when dealing with internal conflicts. That's why they have gulags and work camps. These were vehicle detonations and most likely done remotely.
This might be viewed a small thing in the overall picture, but I see this in a different light. I think it's a very large small thing, and is a foundational insight into the Russian military, their internal security is deteriorating, and I've stated in the past it seems likely to me there's a Claus von Stauffenberg cabal in their military. As I read this I wondered if this isn't a subtle evidence of that being so, as it seems this required inside information. Just a thought... as I said... subtle evidence.
There are two camps in the Russian hierarchy, the war mongers who insist on fighting until total victory is attained, because like all criminals, they just can give up on the con. They insistent on clinging to the fallacious argument NATO and Europe, with support from America, are now, and have been on the verge of attacking Russia. The ridiculous "depth of defense" argument that's been used to justify their unwarranted attack on Ukraine by Russia. I'll tell you what, we'll come back to that.
Then
there's the group who sees reality and recognizes they need peace as a
matter of practicality. This was has cost them hundreds of thousands of
young men who will no longer be around to contribute to their
population, which has a serious demographic problem. Ten years ago it
was estimated by 2040 ethnic Russians would be a minority in their own
nation. That drop in the Russian ethnic demographic has now been
speeded up - a lot. Putin's insane war has put Russia's demographics in free fall.
Russia has seven defensive gaps they feel they must defend, and ten years ago they only had enough manpower to fully man three of them. Now their manpower level is so bad there are now mercenaries from 48 nations with boots on the ground including N. Korea and China, seriously exposing the Russian military isn't a bear. They're so desperate they've duped poor young Indian nationals desperate for foreign employment into fighting in Ukraine. In fact this war has turned into a meat grinder. A riot broke out over this in Krasnodar and their desertion problem is real.
The economics of this war is killing them and they want a restoration of economic stability and a return of international investments, but they don't want to make any concession until they conquer more territory.
According to Ekaterina Zolotova, an expert analyst for Geopolitical, that's a reflection of the Russian mentality overall. The majority want peace, a minority wants war, but a huge majority of all Russians insist there should be no concessions or minimal concessions. That's Putin's conundrum.
The drop in the price of oil and U.S. sanctions has caused Putin serious budget issues. Central Asian nations that were former USSR republics are now doing more business with China, who is even wanting to fund building a small nuke power plant in one of these nations, and that's a pattern that won't end when this war is over.
China's cut a "comprehensive strategic partnership" deal with Azerbaijan involving travel, trade, science, energy and...get this... tourism. But here's the kicker. They're agreeing to affirm mutual support for sovereignty and territorial integrity. How far will that range? As for right now Azerbaijan agrees that Taiwan is part of China and China agrees to support Azerbaijan in their conflict with Nagoya-Karabakh. Didn't even know there was such a thing did you, but this is a major small conflict on Russia's border that's been going on for years, and one that Russia can't resolve due to this Ukraine war. Azerbaijan is on the west cost of the Caspian Sea, right in Russia's back yard, and China is stepping in where Russia has failed. Russians can't even manufacture their military needs, so China does, and has been doing so for some time.
Even Pakistan is involving themselves in the Russian sphere of influence, and truth be told, Putin needs to worry far more about China than NATO or the U.S.
Back to the "Depth of Defense" big lie. In February Putin predicted Trump was going to make Europe's leaders ‘Bend at His Feet’ saying:
“They just don’t like Trump. They forgot him actively, really interfered in political life, in the election process of the United States. And then they were confused when Trump suddenly won,” Putin said. “But I assure you, Trump with his character, persistence, he will restore order pretty quickly. And all of them, you’ll see, it will happen quickly, soon, all of them will stand at the master’s feet and gently wag their tails.”
Why is that important? It's a tacit acknowledgement that Putin understood who and what these European NATO "leaders" were and had to know they had no plans, desires, or ability to attack Russia.
There have been prominent writers who claim Putin doesn't bluff, I think that's a load of horsepucky. I've paid a lot of attention to him over the years, and read a lot of Russian history, and he's still practicing what Russian communists have been practicing since they took over, it's called maskirovka, a masquerade.
The Russians always bluff unless they have an overwhelming advantage where there's no need bluff in order to
get their way, then they just use the hammer. Just like when the USSR crushed the Hungarian Revolution in 1956,
or the Czech revolt known as the Prague Spring in 1968, where nothing
could have stopped Soviet troops from overwhelming those nations.
That's not the case now, and what advantage he had has dissipated
massively, at many levels.
Russia was considered the number two military nation in the world, which has been fighting a war against the 22nd military nation in the world for three years, but he's not going to launch nuclear weapons against Ukraine. He can't take the risk of retaliation, and NATO is now aware of how dangerous Putin is, and is talking retaliation, which makes you wonder from where they're getting their natural gas now, and do they really want Warsaw or Berlin to become a nuclear waste land?
But Putin really doesn't want Moscow to become one either, and I don't believe he will take that chance. I also believe he's facing some internal political issues that scares him. Is there a Claus von Stauffenberg cabal within his military? Absolutely! Historically, being Caesar is the scariest most dangerous job in the world, or in this case Czar, without the religious trappings.
There's always a Stauffenberg cabal, look
at what happened to the American military establishment. Would they
take action if he attempted to use nukes? I think so. He's not the
chess player we thought he was, but that's when he was dealing with
nitwits like Obama, but I also don't think he's that stupid either. He's
not really all that smart, he's just clever. Even if there's no
retaliation the international consequences will be massive. He's
already destroyed Ukraine far beyond his economic ability to rebuild it,
and nukes would merely make it worse, so where's the victory?
He's failed to defeat Ukraine in three years, and it's clear Russia's military, and especially it's military leadership are not all that after all. Bad leadership, bad training, bad strategy, poor logistics, terrible planning, lousy intelligence, and stupid arrogant conclusions, all of which has been the problem with Russia for 125 years, going back to the the 1904 Russo/Japanese war, which Russia lost, and then WWI, which they lost. They only defeated Germany in WWII because Germany was overstretched.... way over stretched.... and America provided much needed hardware, especially the Dodge truck.
It's been said the
Dodge truck saved the Soviet Union, as that allowed Stalin to quickly
transport men and material around the country, which he was incapable of
doing before that. Horse cart supply lines don't cut it. If Germany had finished off England first, and
hadn't declared war on America, Russia would have lost, badly, even with
the 30 divisions he had stashed in Eastern Russia to repel a feared
Japanese invasion.
This war has exposed just how fragile Russia is economically, industrially, and domestically. As a result, Putin's international credibly is in the toilet, and he needs for this war to go away. He also needs to come out looking good, or at least not as the loser, since in Russia failed leaders aren't well tolerated, and I've no doubt, given the murderous thug he's been, he legitimately fears for his continued existence.
He also knows France and others are talking about putting boots on the ground, and Trump didn't want to keep funding Ukraine any longer. He clearly needs Trump to work some diplomatic magic as he did with the Abrahamic Accords, and that will have to be a multinational agreement that binds Russia to Ukrainian protection, which will require an entire restructuring of Ukraine's government. Good luck with that, as each time they seem to reach an agreement one or both parties reneges, and Trump made it clear he's had it and is more than willing to walk away.
But now Trump has
allegedly cut a deal with Zalenskyy over mining in Ukraine, as a result,
a fund would be created out of that to rebuild Ukraine and Trump is
partially ending his ban on military hardware. A lot of military
hardware. Fifty billion dollars worth of military hardware, so we'll
see what happens, but make no mistake about this. There are no good
guys in this war, only
one worse guy, and that's Putin.
