An Abundance of Uncertainties

 

By Rich Kozlovich

George Friedman is the owner of Geopolitical Futures, a subscription site, and well worth it, I just upped my subscription for three more years, who has stated on more than one occasion the cold war didn't really end with the collapse of the Soviet Union.  The cold war was predicated on preventing Russia from conquering Europe, hence the creation of NATO.  But the collapse of the Soviet Union didn't alter Russian goals.   The still had the same goal of taking over Europe just as it was the Soviet Union's.   As a result the cold war continued as a practical reality.   George states that concern ended with the Russo/Ukrainian War, which ended the cold war reality.

Previous to this, everyone, including me, believed NATO was a wet paper bag without the United States, and it was!   As a result without American support it was reasonably beleived Russia could drive down the North European plain right into France, and Europe wouldn't be able to stop them.  While I believed Russia could cut right through Europe, but I didn't believe they could hold it.  Even before this it was clear Russia didn't have the economic wherewithal, nor did they have the manpower to do so as Russia's demographic pyramid was a mess. Well, everyone, including me, was wrong!  Even without American support we now realize Europe still had the technological and military capability and wherewithal to have stopped them in Poland.

Russia has what they consider seven defensive gaps that must be maintained.  Ten years ago they only had manpower to fully man three of them, and it's gotten much worse since then as Putin is destroying his young population.  The Russian demographic pyramid was already all out of whack with the 15 to 50 demographic filled with alcoholics, drug users, victims of AIDS and drug resistant TB.   The critical 15 to 50 age group which creates the economy and the next generation, both of which he's destroying.   Socialism always turns into a form of monarchy.    It doesn't matter whether you call an autocrat Emperor, Chairman, President or King.  An autocrat is an autocrat and invariably they cannibalize the societies they control.

We now we know Russia isn't the mighty bear we thought it was.   Russia had what was considered the number two military in the world, yet it has been unable to defeat the number twenty two rated military in almost four years, and has now had to resort to threatening to use nukes.

Russia's now lost hundreds of thousands of young men, and is now running out of young bodies to fight the war and being forced to using "volunteers" from N. Korea and China.  They can't manufacture all of their own military hardware, and is now being attacked with drones deeper inside Russia destroying their oil and gas depots, which they had already used to  destroy the Russian Black Sea fleet.  Drones are the new military strategic horizon, giving small nations a fighting chance, and that technology is going to expand massively now, right along with laser weaponry, which I've written about. 

The reality of Russia's demographics is coming home to roost as now they're inviting immigrants from Africa and Asia to work in their factories, and that's a poison pill since it was estimated over ten years ago the ethnic population of Russia would be a minority in their own land by 2040, fifteen years away.  I've not seen any recent estimates but I wouldn't be shocked to see that's closer to eight years away now.  It's interesting to see how many are coming from the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia, since they're following their own economic visions with international trade and moving closer to China.   And... Russia's economic minister is predicting a recession.  The hits just keep right on coming. 

So, back to George Friedman.  He notes this real end of the cold war has put the world's leaders in a quandary seeking an anchor to their thinking and planning, and that's moving away from Europe to the Middle East and Asia.

What the world is facing is a much higher level of  geopolitical risks than has existed for decades, none of which will go away any time soon, and those are tied in with very serious domestic political issues which are going go haunt us for decades, much of them due to the unbridled immigration the Obama/Biden cabal forced on America in order to destroy America.  And please stop foolishly believing otherwise because if you can't accept that, you can't understand anything going on.  The evidence of that was obvious to the most casual observer while Obama was President, and now it's overwhelming since Trump was reelected and everything they did is being exposed for the treason it was.  

Economically the world is in trouble with the world's nations being in debt to almost 310 trillion dollars,  much of which can't be repaid, and most political "leaders" are averse to fixing that as they're embracing the welfare state mentality to keep their jobs, including America, which I believe the Big Beautiful Bill will demonstrate when it passes. The result is we're looking at inflation and a worldwide recession on the horizon. 

Investors are becoming more and more risk averse, and rightly so, especially the new generation coming up.   Fixed income is in jeopardy, and trade policies are shifting the world's focus on investments with no idea what to do about it.  

Do I believe there will there be less violence, enhanced with a better, safer, and more stable economic climate in the near future?  No!  

And that's the only thing I'm certain about. 

P&D Geopolitics Edition, Russia, Ukraine, and Donald Trump, Part III

Today the KGB, in all it's manifestations over the last 100 years, has now outlived communism and Russia is no longer a state with a security service, instead the security service has a state. 

By Rich Kozlovich, Tags

In December a Russian general was assassinated, and six days ago another Russian general was assassinated, very near Moscow, and it's not being done by the Russians, not their style when dealing with internal conflicts.  That's why they have gulags and work camps.  These were vehicle detonations and most likely done remotely.  

This might be viewed a small thing in the overall picture, but I see this in a different light.  I think it's a very large small thing, and is a foundational insight into the Russian military, their internal security is deteriorating, and I've stated in the past it seems likely to me there's a Claus von Stauffenberg cabal in their military.  As I read this I wondered if this isn't a subtle evidence of that being so, as it seems this required inside information.   Just a thought... as I said... subtle evidence. 

There are two camps in the Russian hierarchy, the war mongers who insist on fighting until total victory is attained, because like all criminals, they just can give up on the con.  They insistent on clinging to the fallacious argument NATO and Europe, with support from America, are now, and have been on the verge of attacking Russia.  The ridiculous "depth of defense" argument that's been used to justify their unwarranted attack on Ukraine by Russia.  I'll tell you what, we'll come back to that.

Then there's the group who sees reality and recognizes they need peace as a matter of practicality.  This was has cost them hundreds of thousands of young men who will no longer be around to contribute to their population, which has a serious demographic problem.  Ten years ago it was estimated by 2040 ethnic Russians would be a minority in their own nation.  That drop in the Russian ethnic demographic has now been speeded up - a lot.  Putin's insane war has put Russia's demographics in free fall.

Russia has seven defensive gaps they feel they must defend, and ten years ago they only had enough manpower to fully man three of them.  Now their manpower level is so bad there are now mercenaries from 48 nations with boots on the ground including N. Korea and China, seriously exposing the Russian military isn't a bear.   They're so desperate they've duped poor young Indian nationals desperate for foreign employment into fighting in Ukraine. In fact this war has turned into a meat grinder. A riot broke out over this in Krasnodar and their desertion problem is real.

The economics of this war is killing them and they want a restoration of economic stability and a return of international investments, but they don't want to make any concession until they conquer more territory. 

According to Ekaterina Zolotova, an expert analyst for Geopolitical, that's a reflection of the Russian mentality overall.   The majority want peace, a minority wants war, but a huge majority of all Russians insist there should be no concessions or minimal concessions.  That's Putin's conundrum. 

The drop in the price of oil and U.S. sanctions has caused Putin serious budget issues.  Central Asian nations that were former USSR republics are now doing more business with China, who is even wanting to fund building a small nuke power plant in one of these nations, and that's a pattern that won't end when this war is over.  

China's cut a "comprehensive strategic partnership" deal with Azerbaijan involving travel, trade, science, energy and...get this... tourism.   But here's the kicker.  They're agreeing to affirm mutual support for sovereignty and territorial integrity.   How far will that range?  As for right now Azerbaijan agrees that Taiwan is part of China and China agrees to support Azerbaijan in their conflict with Nagoya-Karabakh.   Didn't even know there was such a thing did you, but this is a major small conflict on Russia's border that's been going on for years, and one that Russia can't resolve due to this Ukraine war.  Azerbaijan is on the west cost of the Caspian Sea, right in Russia's back yard, and China is stepping in where Russia has failed.   Russians can't even manufacture their military needs, so China does, and has been doing so for some time.

Even Pakistan is involving themselves in the Russian sphere of influence, and truth be told, Putin needs to worry far more about China than NATO or the U.S.

Back to the "Depth of Defense" big lie.  In February Putin predicted Trump was going to make Europe's leaders ‘Bend at His Feet’ saying:

“They just don’t like Trump. They forgot him actively, really interfered in political life, in the election process of the United States. And then they were confused when Trump suddenly won,” Putin said. “But I assure you, Trump with his character, persistence, he will restore order pretty quickly. And all of them, you’ll see, it will happen quickly, soon, all of them will stand at the master’s feet and gently wag their tails.”

Why is that important?  It's a tacit acknowledgement that Putin understood who and what these European NATO "leaders" were and had to know they had no plans, desires, or ability to attack Russia.  

There have been prominent writers who claim Putin doesn't bluff, I think that's a load of horsepucky.  I've paid a lot of attention to him over the years, and read a lot of Russian history, and he's still practicing what Russian communists have been practicing since they took over, it's called maskirovka, a masquerade.  

The Russians always bluff unless they have an overwhelming advantage where there's no need bluff in order to get their way, then they just use the hammer.  Just like when the USSR crushed the Hungarian Revolution in 1956, or the Czech revolt known as the Prague Spring in 1968, where nothing could have stopped Soviet troops from overwhelming those nations.   That's not the case now, and what advantage he had has dissipated massively, at many levels.

Russia was considered the number two military nation in the world, which has been fighting a war against the 22nd military nation in the world for three years, but he's not going to launch nuclear weapons against Ukraine.  He can't take the risk of retaliation, and NATO is now aware of how dangerous Putin is, and is talking retaliation, which makes you wonder from where they're getting their natural gas now, and do they really want Warsaw or Berlin to become a nuclear waste land?  

But Putin really doesn't want Moscow to become one either, and I don't believe he will take that chance.  I also believe he's facing some internal political issues that scares him. Is there a Claus von Stauffenberg cabal within his military?  Absolutely!  Historically, being Caesar is the scariest most dangerous job in the world, or in this case Czar, without the religious trappings.  

There's always a Stauffenberg cabal, look at what happened to the American military establishment.  Would they take action if he attempted to use nukes?  I think so.  He's not the chess player we thought he was, but that's when he was dealing with nitwits like Obama, but I also don't think he's that stupid either. He's not really all that smart, he's just clever.  Even if there's no retaliation the international consequences will be massive.  He's already destroyed Ukraine far beyond his economic ability to rebuild it, and nukes would merely make it worse, so where's the victory? 

He's failed to defeat Ukraine in three years, and it's clear Russia's military, and especially it's military leadership are not all that after all.  Bad leadership, bad training, bad strategy, poor logistics, terrible planning, lousy intelligence, and stupid arrogant conclusions, all of which has been the problem with Russia for 125 years, going back to the the 1904 Russo/Japanese war, which Russia lost, and then WWI, which they lost.  They only defeated Germany in WWII because Germany was overstretched.... way over stretched....  and America provided much needed hardware, especially the Dodge truck.  

It's been said the Dodge truck saved the Soviet Union, as that allowed Stalin to quickly transport men and material around the country, which he was incapable of doing before that.  Horse cart supply lines don't cut it. If Germany had finished off England first, and hadn't declared war on America, Russia would have lost, badly, even with the 30 divisions he had stashed in Eastern Russia to repel a feared Japanese invasion.

This war has exposed just how fragile Russia is economically, industrially, and domestically.  As a result,  Putin's international credibly is in the toilet, and he needs for this war to go away.  He also needs to come out looking good, or at least not as the loser, since in Russia failed leaders aren't well tolerated, and I've no doubt, given the murderous thug he's been, he legitimately fears for his continued existence.  

He also knows France and others are talking about putting boots on the ground, and Trump didn't want to keep funding Ukraine any longer.  He clearly needs Trump to work some diplomatic magic as he did with the Abrahamic Accords, and that will have to be a multinational agreement that binds Russia to Ukrainian protection, which will require an entire restructuring of Ukraine's government.  Good luck with that, as each time they seem to reach an agreement one or both parties reneges, and Trump made it clear he's had it and is more than willing to walk away. 

But now Trump has allegedly cut a deal with Zalenskyy over mining in Ukraine, as a result, a fund would be created out of that to rebuild Ukraine and Trump is partially ending his ban on military hardware.  A lot of military hardware.   Fifty billion dollars worth of military hardware, so we'll see what happens, but make no mistake about this.  There are no good guys in this war, only one worse guy, and that's Putin.

The Kobayashi Maru No Win Scenario and The Questions Never Asked

What was a civilian fuel ship doing in the Klingon Neutral Zone in the first place?

By Rich Kozlovich 

For Star Trek fans this is a well known story, and recently this scenario came up in an article, Will the Deep State Be Beaten via a ‘Kobayashi Maru Maneuver by DOGE Team?, forcing Democrats to "defend the indefensible" with their obnoxious, brash, senseless, outrageous claims regarding Trump's policies, while failing to offer any coherent answers. 

As for this idea that what Trump is doing isn't what America voted for, well, it appears that's exactly what America voted for as 60% favor expanding oil and gas production, 59% favor declaring emergency at southern border, and Trump has put Democrats in the position of opposing his massively popular positions — “defending the indefensible” — and they have no coherent answers.

• America Trusts Trump on Almost Every Issue

Being a Star Trek fan over the years (I don't like the new woke stuff) I always liked that "no win" scenario.  Everyone taking the test knew if they attempted a rescue, the test was unbeatable, you were dead, the crew was dead, and the ship was destroyed, unless you cheated as did cadet Kirk.  He says he didn't cheat, he altered the parameters of the program....he cheated.... and he says he did it because he didn't believe in a no win scenario, and claimed he received a commendation for initiative.   He cheated because he wanted to win.   

That was from the original Star Trek series, but in a later movie what he received wasn't a commendation.  At least initially, and then he received a command.  As I said, it's fiction!  So as I go through this keep that in mind, but nonetheless there's a lot to be gleaned regarding the Kobayashi Maru scenario as there are six issues surrounding this whole Star Trek story that are instructive.

1. First, it's fiction. 
2. Secondly, this story is predicated on the Bretton Woods cold war idea it's America's job to resolve all the world's problems.  That's the philosophical framework for this scenario, making the assumption the Star Fleet captains would risk destruction and the lives of their crew to save a completely defenseless victim.  
3. No one in any of these shows dealing with this ever asks why that fuel ship was there in the first place?  The Neutral Zone was huge, and the distances between the neutral zone and the federation planets was also huge.  So, where exactly were they going and how did they get there? 
4. What if this is just a trap to start a war? No single star ship would survive, and they knew it.
   
5. No one ever explains "rationally" throughout all the various Star Trek TV manifestations and movies why the federation ever agreed to an arms limitation, meaning cloaking devices for their star-ships.  They claimed it was to get a peace treaty?  Really? Is that in any way sound rational?  Everyone else had one, and it was huge advantage, and remember in the original show this vessel was surrounded by a lot of cloaked Klingon ships just waiting for them to attempt a rescue.  
   
6. Why would an enemy, especially those with tyrannical violent militarized cultures having such an advantage agree to such a treaty, and if they did, why would they honor any such a peace treaty? It's all irrational, but it's instructive.

The Kobayashi Maru scenario is exactly like so many issues surrounding us today, including the Russo/Ukrainian War.    Entirely too much information is left out, too many lies have been told, too much corruption and backstabbing has take place, and done so deliberately, and now those lies and misdirection from the media, politicians, and the Deep State are coming home to roost. 

What would I have done as a cadet faced with the Kobayshi Maru scenario?  Nothing! They got themselves in that mess, let them get themselves out, as there were much larger issues at stake, like potentially starting another interstellar war.  How would the admirals have like it? I have no idea since it appears all the cadet captains tried to save that ship, and they all died, except the one who cheated.

It's kinda like the Russo/Ukrainian War. They got themselves in that mess, let them get themselves out, it's not our fault nor is it our responsibility.  As for this idea that Putin had to attack because he was afraid of NATO, that's nonsense. (more here)  Putin recently noted that Europe's leaders will eventually come to Trump wagging their tails.  Why is that profound? Because that totally undermines his claim he had to attack Ukraine to defend against NATO. He knew those manning NATO's walls are a bunch of wimps, and he had nothing to fear from them, his aggression was all about revanche, acquiring lost territory, and this is all on Putin. 

Vice President Vance torched Europe's leaders, and beat up the globalist oligarchs, putting them on notice, we don't care what you think, what you say, or what you do, and they hated it, with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius saying , “This Is Not Acceptable!”  Well listen up Boris, you don't have a say any longer.   Their hypocrisy and back stabbing has been unending, along with other corrupt self serving schemes such as the EU continued to buy Russia fertilizer through out the war, and Trump isn't going to tolerate it. 

Trump is working to bring an end to this war, and he's cutting out all the players who are obstructing any agreement, that being Europe's leaders and Zelenskyy, who are all have a hissy fit over that, which is understandable, but they've done nothing that works, offer nothing that works, never will agree on anything except keeping the war going, and wanting America to pay for it.  Even much of the weaponry we've given to Ukraine has ended up on the black market, and the money has been diverted, but we don't know where, since Joe Biden wouldn't allow it to be tracked.   So why should we care what Zelenskyy thinks?

But the EU isn't the only ones upset.  The D.C. War Party is angry also, but like the others,  they're out of the talks also.  However, I do find it interesting NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte tells Europe to stop whining about being left out of the peace talks, saying if they want to be a part of the debate then come up with concrete ideas. But that's not gonna happen, and that's why Trump is dumping them.  

Now for the questions not asked. 

What I wonder about is this new issue regarding what's being called Ukrainian Economic Colonization over the vast mineral deposits in Ukraine, and the ability to mine them making Ukraine a very wealthy nation.  

Well, if that was true, and I'm assuming it is, then why didn't they take advantage of that before this?  If they had and had become a very wealthy nation they would have been capable of buying, or even better yet, manufacturing all the military hardware necessary to defend themselves and preventing an attack in the first place.  Why didn't they?

If that's part of the deal then we're talking American boots on the ground in order to enrich investors, and in my view, that's no deal at all, it's a Kobayashi Maru scenario, and I still say they created this mess, let them fix it, or not.