By Rich Kozlovich
Putin never declared war on Ukraine, because it was a Special Military Operation. Why is that important?
Okay, to explain that I'm going to cover what I've been
reading regarding the Russo/Ukrainian War in this piece, but I'm going
to go back in time and lay more foundation, and I think my six rules
about understanding geopolitics, which blend naturally, are essential in
such a discussion.
- My First Rule of Geopolitics: All geopolitics is about geographics, demographics and economics.
- My Second Rule of Geopolitics: Everything is about the basics.
- My Third Rule of Geopolitics: History is everything.
- My Fourth Rule of Geopolitics: People are like nations, and will act in their own best interests, unless they don't.
- My Fifth Rule of Geopolitics: Nothing is ever as it appears. Look behind the curtain.
- My Sixth Rule of Geopolitics: Everyone lies.
There's
been all this talk about Putin using nuclear arms in his war with
Ukraine. Initially I thought that was never going to happen. Then as
the war turned against Putin, I thought maybe he will use them in a
small strategic way. Then, as it got worse, I began to think if Putin's
rationalized using them in a small way he might adopt the mentality,
"in for a dime in for a dollar", and go all out, although even China and
India, which are considered allies of a sort, have warned against such
an action.
One of the things I wrote about 10 years ago or so
was Russia's very real and primary problem. Demographics! Russia
believes it has seven defensive gaps it must maintain, and two of them
were around Ukraine. Ten years ago they only had the manpower to
maintain three of them. At that time it was estimated by 2040 ethnic
Russians may well be a minority in their own country, and strange is it
sounds, I think Putin loves Russia and wants to save Russia. But
there's the rub.
There's a reason they call Russia "Mother
Russia". In the United States you've never heard the terms Father
America, or Mother America because in America the people are America,
and America is the people. In Russia they don't have that mentality,
and most assuredly Putin most certainly doesn't have that mentality now,
and Russian rulers never have going back to Imperial Russia and the
Soviet Union. Russia, as a land and a nation is what's sacred, and the
people merely have the privilege of occupying that nation, and would be
used as they saw fit.
That's what Putin loves, Russia, not the
people of Russia. We find that kind of thinking to be totally alien to
us, and that's why we make so many mistakes in dealing with Russia, and
China for that matter, as their leaders have much the same mentality.
“The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of a million is a statistic.” Joseph Stalin
After
the fall of the Berlin wall, the collapse of the Warsaw pact,
and the collapse of the Soviet Union, and long before Putin came to
power the Russian leadership knew it needed Ukraine to be part of Russia
in some form for a number of reasons, but the number one reason was
demographics. Russia's demographic decline is dramatic and with so many
fleeing Russia to avoid conscription, it's worse than ever. They're
allegedly planning a new push, which I don't think will happen, and in
order to meet their needs they've been using non-Slavic migrants. But
the fact remains their army is demoralized, ill trained, ill equipped,
and worse yet, led by an incompetent corrupt military hierarchy.
Napoleon once noted:
In war, three-quarters turns on personal character and
relations; the balance of manpower and materials counts only for the
remaining quarter.
If that's true, and considering he fought
and won more battles over more diverse terrain than anyone in history, I
think we can be assured it is. That can only mean one thing. Any
future Russian initiatives will be in trouble.
Ukrainians
and Russians are of the same Slavic ethnic stock, and the Russian
leadership at the collapse of the Soviet Union, attempted to form a "New
Soviet Union" out of the 15 former Soviet Republics, but they didn't
desire to have the non-Slavic nations become more powerful in this "New
Soviet Union", so they needed Ukraine. Yeltsin, a typical communist
thug, thought they could intimidate all these Republics into agreeing
to this new "looser" tyranny, but they needed a Slavic Ukraine to agree
to this new tyranny. While President George H.W. Bush tried to
persuade Ukraine to accept this new union, they didn't. All the threats
backfired.
"Bush delivered
his infamous “Chicken Kiev”
speech as a result, hoping to prevent Ukraine from pulling out.
“Freedom is not the same as independence,” Bush lectured the Ukrainian
parliament. “Americans will not support those who seek independence in
order to replace a far-off tyranny with a local despotism.” The irony of
the speech was sharp: a U.S. president was actively trying to prolong
the existence of the country that had been, until recently, the United
States’ greatest foe."
So,
with Ukraine refusing to join Yeltsin's "new and improved" Soviet
Union,
he realized other republics would do the same, so, what to do? All of a
sudden Moscow and Washington were allies, what in the world would cause
such a scenario?
Ukraine
had a massive stock pile of nuclear arms, the third largest stockpile
in the world with 1,900 nuclear warheads and 2,500 tactical nuclear
arms, large uranium deposits. They also had a large technical and
production capacity to manufacture such missiles. In fact every one of
the ballistic missiles delivered to Cuba in 1962 were manufactured in
the Ukraine. There
were also nuclear arms in Belarus and Kazakhstan, and in short, and
according to Secretary of State Jim Baker, that amounted to:
“A Yugoslavia-type situation with 30,000
nuclear weapons presents an incredible danger to the American people—and
they know it and will hold us accountable if we don’t respond.”
The last thing the U.S. wanted was more nuclear armed independent
nations and no one controlling the switch, so they supported Ukraine
giving up their nuclear arms to Russia, even offering....sort of....some
kind of NATO assurances, which the Russians would have never agreed
to. We'll come back to that.
What followed? Negotiations, lot's of negotiations!
They argued over denuclearization, Crimea, the Soviet Black Sea fleet, financial compensation, formal recognition
of Ukraine’s borders, security guarantees, and eventually what followed was what has been called the Budapest Memorandum,
where if Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons they would get
"assurances" for their territorial integrity. No "guarantees", just
assurances, and the Russians agreed to that!!!
That's
important to remember. Secretary of State Baker agreed not to expand
NATO, but that agreement was with the "Soviet Union", it was an unofficial agreement, and the Soviet Union no longer
exists. "Russia" made "assurances" to honor Ukraine's borders, that
agreement was official and that agreement still exists.
So, after all the bickering
and bargaining why did Ukraine agree to this? They were broke, badly
broke. They signed away much to avoid isolation and bankruptcy. While
this agreement, now signed by Bill Clinton, seemed like a triumphant
moment as a final end to the cold war, and peace in Europe, the
Ukrainian government had no delusions about Russian compliance with any
agreement, but this agreement gave them time!!!
Also, Yeltsin
made it clear they would never accept Ukraine joining NATO, which
shocked Clinton, effectively ending the Partnership for Peace
initiative, but efforts to expand NATO went ahead.
That's important to remember.
As for the Ukraine government, it went it's merry corrupt way, and
the consequences of only having assurances of their border security and
independence has now come to fruition, all of which the Russians
understood all during those negotiations. And what exactly did Russia
understand? Ukraine belongs to Russia, and nothing must stand in the
way. That's why he didn't declare war on Ukraine, in his mind and the minds of his myrmidons, Ukraine isn't an independent nation. It's just a province of Russia, and one with an attitude problem, that makes it a Russian internal issue not requiring any silly declaration of war, hence, a Special Military Operation. Ukraine disagreed. And now it's a war.
All this clabber about how Putin had to attack because of
NATO expansion, and their need for "much-needed strategic depth"
justified this invasion as "an act of premeditated self-defense", is nothing but a load of horsepucky. Not one of the NATO, or non-NATO countries bordering Russia had any intention of attacking Russia and absolutely didn't have the resources to do so. Putin knew that.
This attack was
blatant revanchism, plain and simple, and the foundational foreign
policy of
Russia for centuries, and if Ukraine joined NATO they couldn't risk such
an attack as that would trigger a military response from NATO members,
preventing their planned revanchist aggression. Russia understood the war to be against the West from the beginning, not
because the west wanted to attack them but to keep nations from joining
NATO, which would prevent Russia from invading them as they saw fit.
They were not going to stop until they absorbed all of Ukraine and
officially make it a part of Russia. That's Russia now, just as it was
in the past.
So,
will Putin resort to nuclear war? As I said, Putin loves Russia, but
cares little for the Russian people. But he has to know if he resorts
to nuclear war, he will have destroyed Ukraine, and he will have failed
in his primary objective, that being gaining the Ukraine population.
In the course of this he has seriously undermined his own demographics,
as he's probably lost up to 200,000 young Russians, people are fleeing Russia to avoid conscription, and that includes the best and brightest, which is being called a "brain drain", and he cannot possibly
rebuild the Ukraine's infrastructure and cities he's destroyed. He can't even build his own military equipment, as he's having to buy them from other nations, including the Taliban, Iran ,and now China has agreed to sell him military hardware. And he's broke. Even if he wins, he loses, and China will be ascendant on his border, which will be interesting to see how that plays out.
Also,
Putin must be convinced the west will retaliate with nuclear weapons.
But he lives in a bubble of isolation, hearing only what he wants to hear,
and what he wants to hear is what he believes, and anyone who detracts
from his "visions" is eliminated. All the upper military ranks in Russia are nothing but
Putin's yes men, flunkies and sycophants. So, I'm not convinced Putin believes the west will retaliate.
However,
I do believe Putin knows if all these failures continue to mount, he's
personally doomed. If he's overthrown, it won't be a kind overthrow as
it was with Khrushchev, who didn't play the monster role Stalin did
while in power, which is what I think saved him.
Putin has been a vile murderous KGB thug, and modern Russian history is replete with coups and the violent elimination of political opponents, and I'm of the opinion there's a Colonel
Claus von Stauffenberg cabal within the Russian military. If he
attempts to go nuclear, I think that may well trigger a coup.